Temporary factors led to a weakening in polysilicon demand, while module inventory remained at low levels. [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM March 31 News:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last week, spot prices in the silicon metal market continued to decline and consolidate, with above-standard #553 silicon in east China ranging from 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt. The main futures contract saw a slight upward correction due to news of production cuts on the supply side. In the short term, spot prices for silicon metal are expected to fluctuate rangebound.

Production

Some capacity at major northern plants was gradually reduced or halted today, and silicon metal supply is expected to decrease WoW.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 604,000 mt on March 28, up 13,000 mt WoW. This includes 139,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 4,000 mt WoW, and 465,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 9,000 mt WoW.

Polysilicon

Prices

At the end of the week, prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 39-45 yuan/kg, and N-type dense polysilicon was 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable temporarily, with month-end transactions gradually unfolding, but the negotiation atmosphere was weak, and price increases faced resistance. The earthquake in Myanmar may significantly impact wafer production in Yunnan in April, and downstream demand may fall short of expectations.

Production

In April, there will be some new capacity additions and production increases at certain manufacturers. Polysilicon production is expected to increase slightly, but wafer production may fall short of expectations, leading to a restructuring of polysilicon supply and demand.

Inventory

This week, polysilicon market circulation was limited, and inventory changes were minimal.

Module

Prices

In the current module market, distributed N-type 182 modules are priced around 0.768-0.778 yuan/W, with the average price up 0.004 yuan/W from last Friday. Distributed N-type 210 modules are priced at 0.773-0.783 yuan/W, with the average price up 0.003 yuan/W from last Friday. Centralized N-type 182 modules are priced at 0.704-0.722 yuan/W, and centralized N-type 210 modules are priced at 0.719-0.737 yuan/W. Last week, the upward momentum in module prices weakened significantly.

Production

Most companies raised their operating rates in March, up 35% MoM. Affected by the rush for installations, module scheduled production in April continues to show a growth trend.

Inventory

As April approaches, demand for distributed module orders is gradually cooling, but major manufacturers have mostly completed their overall order arrangements for April, and inventory remains relatively low.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, domestic inner layer sand is priced at 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 30,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Sand prices have remained stable recently, with no significant purchasing fluctuations in the market, and upstream and downstream companies remain in a deadlock.

Production

Domestic sand companies' operating rates rose in March compared to February, with some companies slightly increasing their rates due to rising end-use demand.

Inventory

Sand companies' inventories remain high, and crucible procurement volume is limited.

PV Glass

Prices

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is quoted at 22-23 yuan/m², and actual transaction prices are expected to materialize this week.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is quoted at 23-24 yuan/m², and actual transaction prices are expected to materialize this week.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is quoted at 13.5-14 yuan/m², and actual transaction prices are expected to materialize this week.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is quoted at 14.5-15 yuan/m², and actual transaction prices are expected to materialize this week.

Production

Domestic glass production increased significantly in March, and scheduled production in April is expected to continue rising.

Inventory

This week, domestic glass companies' inventories declined, but the pace of decline was limited. With high module scheduled production demand in April, glass shortages are increasing, and days of inventories continue to decline.